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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still